Employment Change in Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing States

Employment in manufacturing states in August 2004 was still 2 percent below the employment levels of March 2001. In comparison, employment in non-manufacturing states has risen, albeit slowly, by 0.9 percent, which translates into a monthly growth rate of 0.02 percent.Note: Manufacturing states are states that had a manufacturing employment share in 1997 that was greater than the average employment share for all states by 0.25 times the standard deviation. These states are Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin . Non-manufacturing states are defined as states that had an employment share that was more than 0.25 times the standard deviation below the average manufacturing employment share. These states are Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming . Other states were not classified. Averages are employment weighted averages.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
Change in Unemployment Rate in Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing States, March 2001 to August 2004The unemployment rate in manufacturing states has risen faster than in non-manufacturing states compared to the start of the recession. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it increased in 13 manufacturing states in August 2004, compared to an increase in only nine non-manufacturing states.Note: Manufacturing states are states that had a manufacturing employment share in 1997 that was greater than the average employment share for all states by 0.25 times the standard deviation. These states are Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin . Non-manufacturing states are defined as states that had an employment share that was more than 0.25 times the standard deviation below the average manufacturing employment share. These states are Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming . Other states were not classified. Averages are employment weighted averages.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
The Economy Has Turned the Corner … Into a Dead EndAugust 9, 2004
Too Early To Declare Manufacturing’s Woes OverJune 17, 2004
Industrial Production Growth, March 2001 to May 2004Despite increases in industrial production in manufacturing over the past twelve months, it is only 0.5% higher than it was at the beginning of the recession, when IT related industries are excluded.Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, Release G. 17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Washington , D.C. : Board of Governors, www.federalreserve.gov
Percent Change in Employment in Manufacturing Industries, March 2001 to May 2004More than half of all manufacturing industries have employment levels that are 10% below those at the start of the recession and more than one third have employment levels that are 15% below those at the start of the recession.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Release, Washington , D.C. : Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov
Percent Change in Employment in Manufacturing Industries, January 2004 to May 2004Despite increases in total manufacturing employment since January 2004, still one third of manufacturing industries have experienced employment declines at the same time.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Release, Washington , D.C. : Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov
'Upside-Down' Economy Takes a Bite out of Middle Class WalletsMay 28, 2004
Consumer Charge-Off Rates and Household Debt Service BurdenThe household debt service burden is the share of income that a household pays towards interest and principal payments on its debt. Over the last 9 quarters, the debt service burden has been above 13%, the highest since the Federal Reserve began keeping track in 1980. The rise in credit card charge-offs, or defaults, in the fourth quarter of last year is a further sign of households' financial distress. For the debt service burden to decrease, incomes will have to rise faster than they have been.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Charge-Off Rates, Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors; Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, Household Debt Service Burden, Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors.
Personal Bankruptcy Filings as a Proportion of HouseholdsThe share of households that declared bankruptcy has increased fourfold since 1980 to a record high. In 2002, the last year for which data are available, there were 1.4 personal bankruptcies for every 100 households in the United States . This figure likely rose again last year given the increases in debt and delinquencies.Source: American Bankruptcy Institute (bankruptcy data); www.abiworld.org, and U.S. Census Bureau (household data), http://www.census.gov
Minorities, Rural American Need Stronger Labor Market to Regain Lost GroundMay 7, 2004
Job Less vs. Job Loss Recovery (Cumulative Employment Growth During the Current and Most Recent Recovery)A year into the recovery, cumulative employment was up in the recovery in the early 1990s. In comparison, the economy had fewer jobs in the third year of the most recent recovery compared to its start in November 2001.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Establishment Data, Washington, D.C.: BLS.
Unemployment Rates by County, 1991, 2000, and 2002Comparing unemployment rates by county from 1991 to 2000 shows that the unemployment rate fell all across the country (lighter colors indicate lower unemployment rates). Although the unemployment rate rose from 2000 to 2002, the losses did not completely erase the gains of the 1990s.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Washington, D.C.: BLS.
Percent Change in Mean Income Received for Each Fifth and Top 5%, White, Black and Hispanic Households, 1983 to 1989 and 1992 to 2000A comparison of income gains shows that minority households, especially lower income households, lost ground in the 1980s, but gained on white households in the 1990s. Moreover, in some instances, low income minority households gained on high income households in the 1990s.Source: Author's calculations from published U.S. Census Bureau data.
Labor Market Unease Unlikely to Go Away SoonApril 30, 2004
Concern about Economic Issues: Workers v. EmployersWorker confidence in the economy is low, with 51% very concerned about job security and 44% very concerned about the unemployment rate. Both these measures are at their highest value since the start of the Work Trends series in 1998. Although employers are less concerned about the economy than workers, a majority (53%) of them still believe now is a bad time to find a quality job.Source: Dixon, K.A., Rodgers, III, W.M., Van Horn, C.E, Laid Off: American Workers and Employers Assess a Volatile Labor Market, Rutgers, NJ: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development
Incidence of Layoffs, by IncomeExposure to layoffs has cut across income levels. While workers earning less than $40,000 per year are more likely to have been laid-off than those earning more than $40,000 annually (27% v. 14%), members of the higher income group are much more likely to work in a firm where others were laid off (36% v. 22%).Source: Dixon, K.A., Rodgers, III, W.M., Van Horn, C.E, Laid Off: American Workers and Employers Assess a Volatile Labor Market, Rutgers, NJ: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development
Earnings after Reemployment, by Education LevelAlthough most dislocated workers have returned to work, half of this reemployed population now earns less than they did before being laid off. This drop in wages is more likely for those with schooling beyond high school--58% of workers with some college education report earning lower wages in their new jobs.Source: Dixon, K.A., Rodgers, III, W.M., Van Horn, C.E, Laid Off: American Workers and Employers Assess a Volatile Labor Market, Rutgers, NJ: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development
Durable Growth More in Need of Labor Market Recovery than BeforeApril 29, 2004
Monthly Percent Change in 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage, 2001 to 2004Mortgage rates saw a sharp increase in the summer of 2003, but declined thereafter. This downward trend ended in April 2004. Mortgage rates increased by 0.5 percentage points from the end of March to the end of April.Source: Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, Release H.15 Select Interest Rates, Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors, www.federalreserve.gov.
Consumer Credit as a Share of Wage and Salary, 1959 to 2004Because wage and salary increases have been slow, households continued to raise their debt levels. Since September 2003, consumer debt, excluding mortgages, has averaged close to 39% of wages and salaries.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, Washington, D.C.: BEA, and Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, Release G.19 Consumer Credit, Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors, www.federalreserve.gov